Giants vs. Patriots — Monday Night, Dec. 1, 2025

Where: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA) • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET • TV: ESPN/ABC
A Week 13 Monday night matchup that on paper looks like a tune-up for the surging New England Patriots and a reality check for a rebuilding New York Giants squad. Below is a detailed, bettor-friendly preview: how each team looked in their last outing, the key players (especially the quarterbacks), the injury landscape, betting lines and edges, and a straight-up prediction.

How the teams did in their last game

New York Giants (2–10)
The Giants come into Foxborough reeling after a wild overtime loss at Detroit. Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs exploded for 264 yards from scrimmage and the Lions beat New York 34–27 on a 69-yard OT run — the kind of breakdown that sums up the Giants’ season: flashes of offense (Jameis Winston went for 366 passing yards in that game) but an inability to close and a defense that has been gashed in critical moments. That loss extended New York’s losing streak and left them 2–10 on the year.  

New England Patriots (10–2)
New England is riding one of the NFL’s best runs. The Patriots just extended a long winning streak (nine in a row, by most counts) with an important victory over Cincinnati and have climbed to a 10–2 mark, pacing the AFC East. The offense has been balanced and explosive at times — rookie running threats and receivers have emerged — while the Patriots’ coaching and situational play have been clicking. New England enters this Monday night game as heavy favorites. 

The quarterbacks — keys to the game

Patriots — Drake Maye
Drake Maye has been the engine of New England’s offense this season. He’s developed into a high-volume passer with the mobility to extend plays and a rising rapport with his core receiving targets. Maye’s decision-making and ability to avoid critical mistakes have been key to New England’s winning streak; keeping pressure on him with interior push plus disciplined off-man coverage will be the Giants’ primary defensive game plan.  

Giants — Jaxson Dart (cleared to start)
The Giants’ QB situation has been turbulent this year. Rookie Jaxson Dart — New York’s 2025 first-round pick — was in concussion protocol but was cleared to return and is projected to start Monday night after missing two games. During his earlier starts he showed the dual-threat upside that had scouts excited: flashes of accuracy and the ability to turn short plays into big yards with his legs. When Dart has been out, Jameis Winston started and put up big passing numbers (e.g., 366 yards vs Detroit), but Dart’s anticipated mobility and play-creation are what the Giants hope will change their late-game fortunes. Expect New York to limit his rushing attempts carefully given his concussion history. 

Injuries and availability (what matters)

In advance of Monday night both teams released injury reports with a handful of notable absences and question marks that will shape the matchup.

Giants notable:

• Kayvon Thibodeaux (edge) — OUT (shoulder) for a third straight game. That’s a real blow to a pass rush that already ranks low in pressure rate; his absence makes it harder to consistently collapse the pocket.
• Dexter Lawrence (DT) — limited in practice after elbow flare-ups but cleared to play; his presence matters to slow interior runs and collapse lanes for Maye.
• A handful of other Giants (LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, CB Korie Black, etc.) are listed questionable and could be rotationally limited.  

Patriots notable:

• Will Campbell (rookie LT) — suffered a serious knee injury recently and is out, which weakens New England’s left-side protection and run-blocking. Losing a starter on the edge of the offensive line matters against any team that can generate stunts and interior pressure.
• Jared Wilson (LG) and Brenden Schooler (ST/safety) are also listed as out.
• Harold Landry (edge) and Khyiris Tonga (DT) were listed questionable — their participation would affect pass-rush matchups against the Giants. 
• Bottom line on injuries: Patriots are missing a couple of OL pieces but still have a deep roster; the Giants are down a top edge rusher and have several questionables on defense. That gap matters when you consider protection for Maye vs. New York’s ability to pressure.

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Matchups that will decide Monday night

1. Patriots OL (without Campbell) vs. Giants DL — If the Giants can pressure Maye (get consistent two- and three-man pressures) they create turnover and sack opportunities. With Dexter Lawrence likely playing, the Giants at least have an interior anchor; but without Kayvon Thibodeaux the edge rush must be generated by committee
2. Maye vs. Giants secondary — New England’s passing game has weapons; if the Giants’ back end (which has been thin most of the season) can’t stay disciplined in coverage, this game becomes a shootout.
3. Giants OL vs. Patriots front seven — New England’s linebackers and edge defenders have been effective at setting the tone. If Jaxson Dart is limited to few scrambles, the Giants need a quick passing game to neutralize pass rush and avoid third-and-longs.
4. Turnover margin & special teams — New England’s situational play over the last two months has been superior; forcing the Giants into negative plays or special teams mistakes (long field goals, returns) could swing the spread further in New England’s favor.

The odds (as of latest market pricing)

Lines and moneylines fluctuate, but the current market consensus (multiple sportsbooks tracked) shows:

• Spread: Patriots -7 (home).
• Moneyline: Patriots about -360 (Giants +280 / +300 depending on book).
• Total: Around 46–48 points (books vary). 
•  Those numbers make New England a clear favorite; implied win probability from a -7 favorite and that moneyline puts the Pats comfortably above 75–80% chance in most models. Market movement has favored New England as cash poured in on them throughout the week.

Betting angles & what to watch for bettors

• Patriots -7 looks solid if their pass protection holds up. The books price these as a mismatch: a top-5 offense on a hot streak vs. one of the league’s worst defenses. If New England can run the ball early and convert third downs, that spread becomes manageable. Use the first-quarter or first-half lines to exploit early-game mismatches if you want a smaller-variance play. 
•  Giants live-hedge/alt-spread value: If you believe Dart’s mobility and creative playcalling could keep drives alive, look for alternative markets: Giants +10.5 or +12.5 (buying points) may be smarter than taking a +7 underdog in a blowout-prone matchup.
• Total lean: With both teams having injuries in the trenches, the total around mid-40s suggests the market expects a game with moderate scoring. If you expect the Patriots to control clock with the run and limit big plays, under 48 is reasonable — but if Dart scrambles and New York scores into shootout mode, the over could pop. Monitor weather (cold, possible wind in Foxborough can lower totals).  
• Prop markets to consider: Maye passing yards (if Patriots get early lead, Maye might throw less but still lean), Dart rushing yards (if he plays, books may underprice his floor given concussion-managed game plan). Also consider Rashod or Hunter Henry (tight end) receiving props — Henry has been a reliable red-zone target. 

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My prediction (straight-up & ATS)

Taking into account records, roster health, home-field advantage, recent form, and current lines:

• Prediction (final score): Patriots 30 — Giants 13.
• Against the spread: Patriots cover the -7 comfortably in this projection.
• Why: New England has the balanced offense and momentum; New York is thin on defensive playmakers (especially on the edge without Thibodeaux) and has an inexperienced, recently concussed rookie QB who will likely be managed to reduce risk. The Pats’ superior situational coaching and depth should create a multi-score win

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Final thoughts — what to monitor pre-kickoff

1. Final injury report (game day scratches). A late upgrade/downgrade — especially for Dolphins? (typo: Patriots) — no, for Patriots: Harold Landry or Khyiris Tonga being inactive would matter; for the Giants, any change to Dexter Lawrence’s status or to Jaxson Dart’s clearance would be huge. Check team reports an hour before kickoff. New England Patriots+1
2. Weather at Gillette. Cold nights and wind can impact totals and kicker reliability.
3. Line movement. If the spread moves toward -9 or more, it means heavy money on the Patriots — that sometimes creates contrarian value on the Giants, but the fundamentals here point toward New England.