San Diego Returns Home Needing a Miracle Against Milwaukee

SAN DIEGO — The Milwaukee Brewers are 27 outs away from a trip to the National League Championship Series.

The San Diego Padres are 27 outs away from going home.

Those are the stakes Tuesday night at Petco Park as the Brewers take a commanding 2-0 lead into Game 3 of their NLDS matchup with the Padres.

Milwaukee has already accomplished what it needed to do at home, winning both games of the series. Now the Brewers head west with a chance to sweep San Diego and advance.

But the Padres aren't going quietly.

San Diego returns to Petco Park with a passionate home crowd behind it and a lineup capable of changing a game in a hurry. Fernando Tatis Jr., along with the rest of the Padres' dangerous offense, will be under enormous pressure to produce.

Standing in their way will be Milwaukee starter Dustin May.

May's regular-season numbers — 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA — don't exactly jump off the page. But there is one statistic that should get San Diego's attention:

May has dominated the Padres this season.

He has posted a 1.23 ERA in three games against San Diego, giving Milwaukee reason to believe that the matchup is better than May's overall numbers might suggest.

San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta, who enters the game after an excellent September in which he posted a 1.45 ERA over four starts. Pivetta also pitched effectively during San Diego's Wild Card victory over the Cubs.

>>> MyBookie Sportsbook Odds: Brewers +1.5 +116 Ov 7.5 | Padres -1.5 -136 Un 7.5

THE PADRES' LAST STAND

San Diego has very little margin for error.

A loss Tuesday means the Padres must win two consecutive games against a Milwaukee club that won a franchise-record 103 games during the regular season.

That's a daunting assignment.

The Padres do have one major advantage: they're finally playing at home. Petco Park should be rocking from the first pitch, and San Diego needs that energy to translate into early offense.

Milwaukee, however, has been one of baseball's most complete teams all season. The Brewers' pitching depth, defense and ability to manufacture runs have made them particularly difficult to beat.

MY TAKE

I think this is where the Padres finally break through.

San Diego has been pushed to the edge, but desperate teams can be dangerous — particularly when they return home. Pivetta's recent pitching form gives the Padres a legitimate chance to extend the series.

I expect a tight game, but I'm giving San Diego just enough offense to survive.

My pick: Padres 5, Brewers 3.

That would cut Milwaukee's series lead to 2-1 and force a Game 4 Wednesday night in San Diego.

The Brewers would still be firmly in control, but the Padres would have one more chance to make this a series.

First pitch: 6:30 p.m. PT
Location: Petco Park, San Diego
Probable starters: Dustin May, Brewers — Nick Pivetta, Padres