Location: U.S. Bank Stadium — Minneapolis, MN

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET (Netflix national broadcast)
TV: Netflix (with some regional CBS broadcasts) 

This NFC North divisional matchup on Christmas Day carries major implications — especially for the Lions, who are battling to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Vikings, though eliminated from postseason contention, could play spoiler and complicate Detroit’s surge. Below, we break down how each team enters this pivotal game.

Recent Form & Context

Detroit Lions (8–7)

Detroit enters Week 17 with an 8–7 record — teetering on the playoff bubble. They have lost back-to-back games for the first time all season, most recently falling at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16. That loss significantly dented their playoff outlook and made this Christmas Day game a must-win situation if they hope to stay alive and force scenarios in Week 18.

The Lions are trending inconsistently — capable of offensive explosions, but vulnerable in recent defensive and red-zone situations — which has made them unpredictable. They need 2 wins in their final 2 weeks and help from others to reach the postseason. 

 Minnesota Vikings (7–8)

Minnesota enters Week 17 mathematically eliminated from the playoffs but on a modest three-game winning streak— including a narrow 16–13 road victory over the New York Giants in Week 16. That streak shows resilience, especially given significant injuries throughout their roster.

In spite of recent success, the Vikings have had an up-and-down season — and now lack a lot of roster continuity because of injuries, including at quarterback. They’ve already clinched a disappointing record relative to expectations and their divisional aspirations. 

How They Fared in Their Last Game

• Lions (vs. Steelers, Week 16): Detroit’s Week 16 loss was a tough one, as they were outlasted late and saw their playoff hopes hang by a thread. The offense sputtered at times, and Detroit’s defense gave up crucial opportunities that Philadelphia took advantage of. While they had spurts of effectiveness, turnovers and missed chances were costly. 
• Vikings (vs. Giants, Week 16): Minnesota eked out a 16–13 victory behind a gritty defensive performance and a game plan that leaned conservative. However, their starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy exited with a hand injury — a disruptive development late in the season. Backup Max Brosmer steered the offense enough to secure the win. 

Key Players to Watch

 Detroit Lions

Jared Goff (QB) – The veteran signal-caller leads the Detroit offense and needs to be efficient to give his team a chance. Goff thrives on timing with his receivers and quick decision-making. When Detroit is clicking, he’s capable of big games through the air.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) – Detroit’s top target and most explosive playmaker. He’s questionable due to knee irritation but is expected to play if at all possible. His presence can transform Detroit’s scoring potential. 

Sam LaPorta (TE) – When healthy, LaPorta is Goff’s security blanket in crucial downs, especially in the red zone. LaPorta is listed as out with a back injury, which could hamper Detroit’s short-yardage efficiency and overall offensive balance. 

Lions Defense: Detroit’s defensive unit has shown flashes but has suffered key losses, most notably safety Kerby Joseph placed on injured reserve, ending his season — a blow for run-support and turnover creation.

Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy (QB) – The rookie starter battling injuries this season has been ruled out for the Christmas Day game due to a right hand fracture. His absence alters Minnesota’s offensive plans significantly. 

Max Brosmer (QB) – With McCarthy sidelined, Brosmer likely starts. He showed enough poise to finish last game, but this will be an uphill test against a motivated Detroit defense. 

Justin Jefferson (WR) – One of the league’s most dynamic receivers, Jefferson can win on any play. With a shaky QB situation, his role grows even more pivotal — making or breaking big-play potential.

Vikings Offensive Weapons: The Vikings also have injuries to TE T.J. Hockenson, C Ryan Kelly, and RB Jordan Mason, among others, which may limit continuity and offensive rhythm. 

Vikings Defense: Minnesota’s defense has been respectable, helping fuel the three-game win streak, and could be a factor if the Lions’ offense stumbles.

Betting Odds & Prediction Market

Most sportsbooks currently list the Detroit Lions as favorites in this matchup — typically around Lions –5.5 to –7depending on the book — with an over/under in the mid-40s range.

• Lions moneyline: Approximately –270
• Vikings moneyline: Approximately +210
• Spread: Lions favored ~ 6 points

Detroit’s favorite status reflects both home losses by Minnesota and the uncertainty at QB for the Vikings. Additionally, the Lions’ desperate playoff chase gives them an emotional edge in a high-stakes environment.

Matchup Breakdown & Key Storylines

Quarterback Play

• Goff vs. Brosmer: Detroit’s experienced Jared Goff has seen ups and downs, but he offers steadier decision-making compared to a backup QB thrust into a pressure scenario. Brosmer’s performance will be a big X-factor — he must avoid mistakes and convert short plays to keep drives alive.

Running Game

• With key receivers out or injured on both sides, establishing the run could determine success. Detroit typically balances with David Montgomery when available, but his status is questionable this week.

Turnovers & Mistakes

• The Lions must limit turnovers and penalties — especially on the road. Meanwhile, Minnesota, without their starting QB, must lean on defense and short passing to stay competitive.

Motivation

• Detroit’s urgency — playoff life on the line — contrasts with Minnesota’s goal to play spoiler and finish strong. This dynamic often impacts intensity late in the season.

Predicted Outcome

Final Prediction:
Detroit Lions 27 — Minnesota Vikings 20

Why this result?

• Detroit’s offensive firepower and desperation likely overcome Minnesota’s depleted offense.
• Even if St. Brown is limited, Goff has enough weapons to stretch the field.
• Minnesota’s QB situation and key offensive absences make scoring consistently difficult.
• Detroit’s defense, while beatable, should force enough pressure on Max Brosmer to limit big plays.

Expect a moderately high-tempo game — but not a shootout. The under/over leans toward under given offensive questions for both teams late in the season.

Wrap-Up

This Christmas Day clash between the 8–7 Detroit Lions and 7–8 Minnesota Vikings has playoff drama written all over it. Detroit faces a must-win scenario, while Minnesota plays for pride and division supremacy. With injuries looming large — especially at quarterback for the Vikings — the Lions seem positioned to control the narrative late and edge out a win.

Whether you’re watching for playoff implications or simply enjoying high-stakes NFL action on the holiday, this game promises meaningful football and standout performances from both rosters.