NFL Football Brief: Week 11
November 20, 22, 23, 2020
Wednesday November 19, 2020
Week 10 in the NFL saw the favorites nearly run the table as they went 12-2 overall with only the Giants and the Patriots winning outright as underdogs. We saw the weather rear its ugly head again as the Cleveland Browns and Green Bay Packers both had their games affected by heavy winds, having a huge effect on their totals. We saw one hall of fame quarterback get right and another hall of fame quarterback leave his game with potentially fractured ribs and a collapsed lung. The number five overall pick in this year’s draft, Tua Tagovailoa got the win over the number six pick in this year’s draft Justin Herbert, and we saw what may be the catch of the year with Deandre Hopkins beating out three Bills’ defenders on a last second Kyler Murray hail mary pass. Onto Week 11 where we kick things off with an NFC West showdown in Seattle!
Our Record: 25-25-2
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 4-1-1
Week 4: 2-2 (The Steelers vs Titans game was PPD)
Week 5: 2-4
Week 6: 0-6 (yikes!)
Week 7: 3-3 (missed the over by 1.5 and 0.5 points in Houston and New Orleans!)
Week 8: 4-2 (some bad closing line value on that early week GB Vs. Min total)
Week 9: 4-2 (tough late news with the 49ers injuries, should definitely have been on the Packers)
Week 10: 1-4-1 (tough week!
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks -3: We kick things off with a rematch of one of the best games of the year so far when Arizona knocked off Seattle in overtime on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. Seattle has struggled since, barely fending off a 49ers team full of third stringers, and then losing outright to Buffalo and the Rams in two games that were not really even close. Russell Wilson has thrown seven interceptions over his last four games including three against this Cardinals team. Meanwhile the Seattle defense has allowed 27, 44, and 23 points against in the last three games, and allowed 37 to Arizona in Week 7. So why is Seattle favored? With light rain and winds expected in Seattle on Thursday night, and wide receiver Tyler Lockett and running back Chris Carson in doubt, we like the Cardinals to win outright.
Our Pick: Arizona +3 and the over 57.5
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings -7.5: This has recency bias written all over it, as the Cowboys have been off on a bye and the Vikings were just victorious in prime time over the Chicago Bears. The Cowboys just kept things close against the Steelers at home and are expecting to have Andy Dalton back under center. The Vikings are on short rest and are getting thinner on defense with injuries starting to pile up. If the Cowboys’ offensive line is back at full health, we can expect Dalton to get protection and time that he didn’t have a few weeks ago. The Vikings defense just looked good against the Bears, but Chicago may have the worst offense in the NFL. Take the Cowboys to keep it within a touchdown.
Our Pick: Dallas +7.5 and the over 47.5
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3: Ordinarily we would love the Rams in this spot but some key injuries, notably left tackle Andrew Whitworth who tore his MCL and is now on the IR. The Rams also lost their kicker Kai Forbath to an injury and his status for Week 11 is up in the air. Offensive line and special teams are never where you want to see injuries pile up, especially against a pass rush as dominant as the Bucs. Expect a hard fought battle in a rematch between Jared Goff and Tom Brady from Super Bowl 53, but we like the Bucs to prevail in the end.
Our Pick: Tampa Bay -3 and the under 47
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