Baseball is arguably the most profitable sport for sharp bettors because it is primarily driven by data and has a wealth of easily-tracked advanced statistics. With a season that comprises of over 160 games, MLB is the ideal environment to win it big.
There are dozens of strategies to choose from, but it’s worth taking the time to research a few that aren’t duds. We took the time to narrow down our list of the easiest MLB strategies that we have found to work.
1. Avoid Betting on all Big Favorites
The temptation on the moneyline with big favorites is to bet the favorite teams no matter how much it costs because you can’t imagine a scenario where the favorites can lose. ‘Recreational’ bettors bet on them regardless of whether they’re losing all their games. However, when your favorite teams win, your own payout isn’t very high and you barely breakeven. But when these teams lose, you get crushed. It’s just not worth it.
This is why most MLB bettors pay attention to underdog betting systems to turn a profit without the risk of losing it all.
2. Pay Attention to the Underdogs
Underdogs perform better in Major League Baseball than in any other major professional sports league. The difference in skills between the top teams in the league and the worst are razor-thin than in any other sports. Between the long, grueling seasons and the numerous variables to take into account per game, there are many opportunities to leverage upsets, which means many opportunities for a big payout.
For example, if you bet on teams with an average moneyline of +130, you would have to go just 44% of your bets to break even. With this batting strategy, you are more likely to hit 50% of your bets.
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3. First Five Innings Bets
One of the most enduring charms of baseball is that it is a largely unpredictable game with unexpected outcomes. For the sports bettor however, the unpredictability can be a costly affair.
For this reason, the first five innings lines are appealing to wagers. Simply put, you’re betting in the results at the end of five full innings as opposed to the outcome of the full game. There’s less risk involved, which explains why the payout isn’t always as good – but this can vary from game to game.
4. Know the Wind
One major factor to consider before placing a wager is the weather. This includes air pressure, temperature, humidity, and more importantly, wind. When the wind speeds up, it turns home runs into warning track throws, benefiting unders. On the other hand, when the wind blows out, it turns fly balls into wall-scraping homers to benefit overs. To read up more on the baseball velocity and weather, click here.
5. Research the Starting Pitcher
The final baseball betting strategy every MLB bettor should take advantage of is the pitching trends. There’s no way around it – every game starts with a pitch, and the outcome of the innings hinges upon the quality of those pitches. Closely evaluating each team’s pitching lineup is important when placing your bets on sides, regardless of totals or first five innings.
Look beyond simple ERA numbers. For more information you can use Jeff Sagarin’s data on USATODAY on the pitcher’s.