The Sweet 16 is starting this week, and by the week's end, we'll be down to the Elite 8. Friday's games have two #1's, two #2's, two #3's, and a 4 and 5, so no matter who emerges, there won't be any major upsets. For Friday's games, the closest one looks to be #2 Kentucky against #3 Houston.
The point spread is only 3 points, and the over/under is 134.5 points. Duke is the most favored team as a 7 point favorite against #4 Virginia Tech. The over/under in that one is 144.5. According to the ESPN Match up Predictor, the Wildcats have a 62.8% chance of winning their game against the Cougars. Houston did have a pretty solid season record-wise, going 33-3, but looking back on their schedule, it wasn't very impressive. They beat LSU before they were ranked, they beat Oregon and Cincinnati twice, but ultimately lost to Cincy in the AAC championship game. Kentucky has way more impressive wins, including against North Carolina, Auburn, Kansas, Tennessee, and Mississippi State to name a few.
So far in the tournament, both teams have had it pretty easy in their advancing to the Sweet 16. Houston was 7th in the country with defense this year, allowing just 61 points per game, but KY has allowed just 50 on average over the first two tournament games compared to Houston's 57. In any event, I think defense will play a big role in this game, and the under will come in. This is Houston's first time in the Sweet 16 since 1984, when they ultimately fell in the championship game to Georgetown. I just think the Cougars' lack of experience will haunt them in this game. I'd take the Wildcats minus the points and the under