New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Monday Night NFL Football, 10-29-2018

This Monday night, the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots. The Pats are huge favorites in this one at 13.5 points, and are a whopping -1200 with the money line.  The Bills have a lot of key players out.  QB Josh Allen, RB Taiwan Jones, DE Trent Murphy, and possibly RB LeSean McCoy, who is listed as questionable.

It might be enticing to take Buffalo Bills as they are +750 with the money line, however I would advise against it. They are scoring a dismal 11.6 points per game, compared to the Patriots who are scoring over 30 a game, and seem to be getting better by the week. Defensively both teams are giving up about 25 points per game.

The over under is 44.5 points. This is tough to call because if it does go over, it will be because New England puts up big numbers. But I think they will get out to an early lead, build on it, and then just run the clock out rather than run up the score, so I am leaning with the under on this one. Also, there’s rain in the forecast, and I always think under initially with cold-rainy weather.

New England has put up 38 points exactly in 3 of its last 4 games, but those games were fairly close until the end. The ESPN Match Up Predictor gives Buffalo only a 16.7% chance to win, that Is one of the lowest percentages I have seen all season so far. Now, against the spread, New England is only 4-3. They were favored by 14 but the line dropped a little, so the trend is taking the Bills getting 13.5 at home, but I still think the Pats win by at least 2 TD’s, something like 30-13. Kickoff is 5:15 PM PT Monday Night.