NFL Football 1-24-2016: The big game before the Big Game.

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

The next two NFL games will determine who plays for Super Bowl 50. This Sunday, those two games will be played. The first game is for the AFC Championship between the host Denver Broncos and New England Patriots. Both teams finished the regular season at 12-4, but the Broncos got the better position due to the head-to-head game they won, which also happened to be the first loss of the season for the Patriots. That game was played in Denver as well.

There is a 54.2% chance that the Broncos win again according to the ESPN Power Football Index. They are currently a 3 point underdog, however, and +140 with the money line. New England is -160 with the money line. The over/under is 45 points. I think that spread is about right. I just don’t see Peyton Manning winning against Tom Brady, given Manning’s playoff history. This will be Brady’s 10th Conference Championship game, and 5th in as many years. It could also likely be the last two times these two QB’s play head-to-head against each other.

So the stats show that Brady is 11-5 against Manning lifetime. These two have played each other 4 times in the playoffs, each winning two, but Manning has won the last two, both in Denver and both being Conference Championship games. Overall, Brady is just 2-6 while playing games in Denver. It will be a highly entertaining game. I think this one will be well-played by both QB’s, and I can see the over coming in.

But I think Brady still has a lot left in the tank, and Manning is clearly on the decline, and I can’t see the Broncos pulling this one off. The winner of this will play the winner of the next game between The Carolina Panthers and the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl on February 7th.