Just 8 teams remain in the Super Bowl hunt. The first two teams play Saturday afternoon when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are probably the hottest team in football right now. They pulled off a road upset at Houston last week, but this week will face a much tougher opponent in the Chiefs, who are the top seeded team in the AFC. The Chiefs are a home favorite by 5.5 points, and are -240 with the money line. The Colts are +190, and the over/under is the largest of the weekend at 57 points. The Chiefs had the bye last week, so will benefit from being at home as well as that extra rest, and the Colts will benefit from the momentum of their winning streak.
The Colts-Texans last week was under, but with the Chief's fire power, as well as their not so excellent defense, I think this game has a real good shot of going over 57 points, even over 60 points for that matter. KC has a 75% chance of winning outright according to the ESPN Power Football Index. I think on paper they should of course win, but that's why you got to play these games out. This will be Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes first ever playoff game, and he may have some nerves at the start that he might not be able to overcome, kind of like Lamar Jackson last week with the Ravens. Jackson was 6-1 since taking over for Flacco at QB, he fumbled often and struggled early, and by the time he was turning it around and leading a comeback, time expired. I can see the veteran Chargers QB Rivers being more poised and composed, and getting the job done.
I think Patrick Mahomes will be around for a long time, and the Chiefs winning ways to go with that, but I don't think the extra rest and home-field will be enough for Mahomes to overcome his inexperience in the postseason. For that reason, I like the Colts to continue their winning streak and advance to the AFC Championship game the following week, on the road regardless of who wins the Chargers- Patriots game.