The NFL playoffs start this weekend with a pair of games on Saturday and Sunday. The first game is the Houston Texans hosting the Indianapolis Colts. I don't know if it will matter too much, but the Colts last game was this past Sunday night, and now they get the early Saturday game, so they are playing on a bit of a short week. Houston is just a slight 1.5 point home favorite, and the over/under is 48.5 points.
Starting back in week 3, the Colts went on a 4 game losing streak and were 1-5 to start the season. Since that losing streak, they went 9-1 and closed out the season on a 4 game winning streak to finish 10-6. Their one loss during that stretch was at Jacksonville, and it was a surprising 6-0 loss. These two teams met twice this year, and they split the series 1-1. Houston took the first one back in week 4, in a close 37-34 win at Indy, and the Colts won the last game just 3 weeks ago in another 3-point game, 24-21 at Houston. So the trend between these two teams is the road team wins by 3 points.
This should be another close game. Houston had a better regular season record by one game (11-5), and won the AFC South division. They too started off poorly, going 0-3, before closing out the final 13 games 11-2, but those 2 losses came within the past 4 weeks, again one of them being to the Colts. In that Colts game, Andrew Luck passed for 399 yards and 2 TDs, and WR TY Hilton had 199 yards on 9 receptions. Houston DE J.J. Watt has 16 sacks this year, but the Colts D only allowed 18 sacks all season which is the fewest in the league. In all sports, the team with the momentum seems to get the farthest in the playoffs.
The Colts are just 4-4 on the road while the Texans are 6-2 on the road, but I think the Colts continue their hot play. Houston's D will do enough to limit Luck somewhat, but in the end, Luck is having too good of a season, Watt is a little banged up, so I think the Colts win this one straight up in a lower scoring game. The Colts are +105 with the money line. Kickoff is Saturday at 1:35 PM PT from NRG Stadium in Houston, TX.